Dry September impacts on October harvest and 2026 Preparations
By Mike Toohill
Bloomington, IL
Mid to late September rainfall was quite variable in the Midwest. For example, with the latest rain event we just had numerous showers resulting in around a half inch at Bloomington while our farm got over 3” just 20 miles southeast. Below left is 30 day % of mean precipitation map with the REDDEST part of the map located in my home state of Illinois. The current U.S. Drought Monitor is also quite colorful. Looking forward, the start of October looks very warm and continued dry.
Where did the DRY September “take” the most bushels?
Southern Illinois. Late planted crops. Very little August through at least mid-September rain. Soils with reduced moisture holding capacity. Plenty of August and September heat. Most of the corn south of I-70 was already dead when some September rain finally came down but the GREENEST fullest season beans and double crops should have gotten some yield help in areas with significant moisture (at least an inch?).
Ohio. Also, late planted crops. Lots of clay. Very little rain over the last 60 days.
Although soybean harvest moisture increased in areas with recent rains, over dry soybeans were back by late September. Shatter risk is also increasing. This is an issue in much of the U.S. With the lack of rain in the forecast, it makes sense to me to get them out. Maybe cut beans while it’s damper and shell corn in the middle of the day?
Corn harvest moisture is also dropping fast and I expect numerous fields in the I-States to be sub 15% by early October. This is especially true in drought stressed corn and non-fungicide treated fields with moderate to heavy disease pressure. “Mystery” yield loss will also be significant along with increased head loss.
Dry soils impacts on 2026 preparations.
Increased soil test variability/poor reliability in areas that have very dry soils. Not only is hard to get non mechanical probes into the ground, but soil pH usually come back low, P test also trends lower and K tests usually come back significantly lower than where they should be in hard, dry soils. Thus, it is best to wait until soils return to a more normal moisture levels before testing if you are in a dry area. I also like to test at the same time each year so it might be next fall if you like to probe after the corn and soybeans come off if your farms are currently under some form of drought.
Establishment of fall covers and wheat will be much more difficult.
Although southern rust and other diseases killed the corn crop off early in many areas, very dry soils will limit soil biological activity and fall residue break down.
For growers who like to deep rip in the fall, soils will shatter good but it will take lots of horse power and diesel.
It’s way early for fall NH3 where it is still an accepted practice, but knife penetration and “seal” will be difficult unless soils get a lot wetter in October.
Field fire risk continues (if you missed the rains) or is “ramping” back up in areas that caught some mid to late September rains with the return to much above normal early October temperatures.
You know this but it never hurts to read it one more time, be even safer and more prepared than you usually are in “powder dry” harvest conditions.
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